Saturday Slate – CFB Preview Week 10

Hey you got the rev, and Here’s what I’M burning on this week:

Notre Dame @ Northwestern (+9.5): Northwestern has been riding a hot streak lately but they havent faced an offense as strong and diversified as Notre Dame. I think the Cats keep it close, staying within a touchdown for the first three quarters before making a critical turnover that results in points for ND to ice it. Prediction 31-16 ND, Confidence: 4/5

Alabama @ LSU (+14.5) Obviously LSU will have the crowd on their side here and they have a phenomenal defense, and Bama hasnt played anyone worth anything yet (or have they? Is Texas A&M close to good? Maybe.). This will be Alabama’s first real test of the year, but unfortunately I think they easily pass it. They’ll jump out to an early lead, then keep truckin to the end. Nobody stops Bama this year, as much as I wish it wasnt true. Prediction 34-23 Alabama wins and LSU covers. Confidence 4/5

UCLA @ Oregon (-10): The return of Chip Kelly to Autzen. Oregon, after starting the season hot has now lost 3 of the last 5, including a game where they got slapped around by a mediocre Arizona. UCLA is trending upwards with a big win at Cal and a tight win over Arizona. They then ran into Utah, who is looking to be the cream of the Pac12 crop, along with Wazzu. UCLA’s season is on an upward macro-view trajectory, Oregon’s is sliding downwards. UO QB Justin Herbert might not go this week due to a late game concussion last week. If he doesnt go, I think UCLA keeps it close. Obviously this would affect the spread so keep your eyes peeled and maybe try to catch your bookmaker napping. In any event, Chip Kelly will have his squad dialed in for this one. As much as I don’t want to say it, I like UCLA keeping it closer than it should be, prediction: 32-27 Oregon. Confidence 2/5

Syracuse @ Wake Forest (+6.5 OU 75.5) Wake is an interesting team. They’ve won the games they should have won, lost the games they should have lost, with the Florida State loss falling somewhere in the middle. Now hosting the high scoring Syracuse, it’ll be tough for them to keep pace. Syracuse had a clunker of a loss against an OKAY Pitt team a couple weeks ago, played tight against UNC, then seemed to shore things up against a good NC State. Their defense cant stop anything though. The Over Under is very high but thats still my pick, the over. Prediction 48-36 Syracuse

Nebraska @ Ohio State (-17.5) Here’s how I see this one playing out: Nebraska comes out HOT, scores two quick touchdowns and jumps to a 14-0 lead. Ohio State scores the next 40. Final score prediction 40-17 Ohio State, confidence 3.5/5

West Virginia @ Texas (-2.0) – Texas’ secondary had a rough time against Oklahoma State’s passing attack, and Will Grier and the Mountaineers are a little better than them. I like West Virginia here 38-26. Confidence 4.5/5

Georgia @ Kentucky (+9) Full disclosure, I bet against Georgia last week and it burned me. Kentucky has proven to be legit enough to beat the mid level to even upper level SEC teams. I think this game comes down to this: is Kentucky’s defense for real? Statistically, this year they have been, not allowing more than 16 points since week 1, where they allowed a whopping 20 points. The problem here, is Georgia can SCORE. Other than their one loss at LSU they are consistently scoring above 30 a game, something Kentucky has only done once. My gut tells me this is a back and forth game until late, Georgia kicks a late field goal to seal it. Prediction 31-21 Georgia. Confidence 3/5

Penn State @ Michigan (-10.5) Penn State doesnt get blown out. They might lose but it won’t be a blowout. It’s not gonna happen here either. Prediction: 18-13 Michigan, Penn State Covers, Confidence 3.5/5

Cal @ Wazzu (-10.0): Cal has been a team all year that I’ve been told to ‘watch out for!’, but they really haven’t lived up to that billing at all. In their last 5 they’re 2-3. In their losses, their offense struggles. So lets look at their two wins. One was a big blowout against the certifiably BAD Oregon State (just dont tell Colorado that), the other a 12-10 clunker vs a Washington team that is falling apart at the seams since the Oregon game. Wazzu on the other hand is still flying high since their first College Gameday visit/ Oregon beatdown, coupled with a win at the Stanford farm. Their defense is giving up some points, but I dont think Cal will really be able to put them up. I like Wazzu big in this one, 49-22. Confidence 4/5

Stanford @ Washington (-10.0) – Both teams have been disappointing this year, especially Washington, who were an early season favorite for the playoffs. Jake Browning was benched last game for his sloppy play at Cal. I think Stanford plays them close and could win outright, definitely covers. Prediction 21-18 Washington, Stanford covers – confidence 5/5

UPSET SPECIAL : Pitt over Virginia (-7.5) Pitt, the Northwestern of the ACC, in that they are a complete wildcard week to week. If they show up to play, they can beat some good teams, then some weeks they’ll give North Carolina their only win of the year. Virginia has a good record at 6-2, but hasnt looked that impressive in their games. I think Pitt shows up this weekend and wins outright. Prediction 24-20 Pitt, confidence 4/5

Season’s CFB ATS record: 5-6-1. That’s what I get for believing in Purdue. Also if you factor in my ‘confidence’ rating, it’s not as bad as it seems. I’m not sure how to factor that into a record though, I’m not a math wiz.